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Obama's '10 challenge: 'Waking liberals'

by Mark Silva

With President Barack Obama's job approval rating at a term-low near the end of his first year, the Pew Research Center's Andrew Kohut suggests that "what's really exceptional at this stage of Obama's presidency is the extent to which the public has moved in a conservative direction on a range of issues.''

This shift has come as much from "the middle of the electorate as from the highly energized conservative right,'' Kohut reports, with a review of recent findings on cultural and political issues that show significant movements of the needle. "Even more notable, however, is the extent to which liberals appear to be dozing as the country has shifted on both economic and social issues.''

The president's challenge in 2010?

"Waking up the liberalscalming down the independents.''

This has been borne out in other surveys as well: A disaffection among many of the independents who helped elect Obama with his stance on some of the issues he has taken on. Combined with a lack of passion among the president's most passionate base, this could spell trouble for his party in the mid-term congressional elections.

The independent Pew Center's research through the year has revealed "a downward slope in support both for an activist government generally and for a strong safety net for the needy, in particular,'' Pew reports. "Chalk up these trends to a backlash against Obama policies that have expanded the role of government.''

This includes waning support for gun control and abortion rights "and a rise in public doubts about global warming.''

"Over the course of the year,'' Pew notes, "strong opposition to health care reform has topped strong support in every survey Pew Research has conducted.

The latest December report put a sharp, partisan focus on that conservative fervor and lack of liberal passion: "While 39 percent of the Republicans said they would be angry if current reform proposals were enacted, just 22 percent of Democrats said they would be very happy if the measures succeeded.''

On the question of abortion, Pew has found for the first time in many years "a close division of opinion'' between those who support abortion rights and those who oppose them.

Public belief in the evidence of global warming, voiced by 70 percent or more of the public in recent years, has slipped to 57 percentwith Republicans and independents particularly more doubtful.

"And for the first time since the Columbine school shooting in 1999, nearly as many people believe it is more important to protect the right of Americans to own guns (45 percent) than to control gun ownership (49 percent),'' Pew reports.

"More puzzling is why liberals seem asleep on issues like health care and abortion,'' Pew reports. "Are they dozing because they take comfort that one of their own is in the White House? Or are they disillusioned because they think Obama is not liberal enough?''

There are some signs that liberals " may be feeling a bit ignored by the administration,'' Pew suggests..Most Republicans (66 percent) believe that Obama is listening most to his party's liberals. But just 20 percent of liberal Democrats believe. Most think Obama is listening to moderates (54 percent) or say they aren't sure who really has the president's ear (25 percent).

"Whether it is disillusionment, apathy or over confidence, the administration and the Democratic Party will need a lot of help from liberals in 2010, given the public opinion trends on issues and the rising anti-incumbent sentiment abroad in the land,'' Pew reports.

"Many key elements of Obama's base (young voters, minorities) do not have a particularly good record for turnout in off-years, as Republican victories last month in Virginia and New Jersey illustrated,'' Pew notes. "Obama's challenge is to avoid further scares to skittish independents, while lighting a fire under lethargic liberals.''

The bipartisan Battleground Poll came to a similar conclusion this week, suggesting that anger among independents and a lack of motivation to vote among the president's base combine to spell a big problem for the Democrats and major opportunity for the Republicans in 2010.

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